Avoid
The model rates this runner one to leave out — it's never tipped as the win or each-way
selection, even if it ranks well on a single factor. It's a holistic call from the 12
factors; the runner's one-line
reason on the card gives the specific "why". The
common triggers are:
- Form against it — poor or declining recent figures, well beaten last start with no excuse.
- Unsuited today — unproven or poor record at this distance or on today's going (e.g. no wet-track form on a soft surface).
- Class / weight — stepping up sharply in grade, or carrying a big weight in a handicap.
- Fitness query — long layoff, or first-up with a weak first-up record.
- Wrong end of the run — weak speed / sectional ratings (no early speed and no closing burst), especially a backmarker in a race likely to suit on-pace types.
- Draw — an unfavourable barrier for the track and distance.
- Connections out of form — poor jockey/trainer strike rate at the track, or a stable going quietly.
- Trouble / temperament — stewards notes flagging it hung, raced greenly or began awkwardly, without a genuine hard-luck excuse.
An Avoid isn't a prediction it will run last — just that it's poor value to back. If the
live market later drifts it further, the
⚠ drifted flag reinforces the read.