Predictions come from a deterministic blend of two signals — our multi-factor model score and the live market (fixed odds). The split is not fixed: it is re-learned from settled results, and every change is recorded as a dated change point on the performance charts. The flags below surface where the model, the market and the tote disagree.

Alerts page

🔴 TOP PICK SCRATCHED
Scratching A runner has come out of the race. When it's the tip itself the badge says so, and the alert names what the scratching invalidated — the rest of the card is unaffected.
⭐ BLACKBOOK
Blackbook A horse, jockey or trainer you follow is racing today, with the note you saved against it. Follows are managed from the blackbook and from any runner card.
💰 VALUE +18%
Value A backed selection (top pick or each-way) is available at fixed odds meaningfully above its model fair price — at least 15% over, capped at +80% (beyond that the fair price is treated as stale). An early bet may be profitable (+EV).
🎯 PLACE VALUE
Place value The same place-floor signal as on the race card, surfaced across the schedule: a strong model place chance (≥45%) the tote place pool is underbetting, with early speed confirming the floor. Shows near the off (needs the tote pool). A good each-way / exotic anchor.
⟳ PICK MOVED
Pick moved The live market has moved enough that re-blending on current odds changes the race's top pick to a different horse. The alert shows the old → new pick and why.
↻ UPDATED
Updated picks A Core prediction has been refreshed on live data — the alert shows the old → new pick. Unlike "pick moved", this is the prediction being re-run, not the market re-ordering it.
⚡ OVERLAY ×1.7
Tote overlay The tote is paying meaningfully more than the fixed price on a competitive runner (ratio ≥ 1.30) — value to back on the tote. Only shown within 30 min of the jump, once the tote pool has firmed up.
⚠ DRIFT TRAP
Drift trap (dummy drift) The fixed price is drifting out (≥25% over 30 min) while the tote stays short (≤85% of fixed) — a warning the smart money may be against a horse whose fixed price looks tempting.

Race page — runner badges

WIN
Win The model's top pick — its single best-value win selection for the race.
EACH-WAY
Each-way A place-value runner worth backing each-way (win + place).
AVOID
Avoid The model rates this runner one to leave out — it's never tipped as the win or each-way selection, even if it ranks well on a single factor. It's a holistic call across every factor; the runner's one-line reason on the card gives the specific "why". The common triggers are:
  • Form against it — poor or declining recent figures, well beaten last start with no excuse.
  • Unsuited today — unproven or poor record at this distance or on today's going (e.g. no wet-track form on a soft surface).
  • Class / weight — stepping up sharply in grade, or carrying a big weight in a handicap.
  • Fitness query — long layoff, or first-up with a weak first-up record.
  • Wrong end of the run — weak speed / sectional ratings (no early speed and no closing burst), especially a backmarker in a race likely to suit on-pace types.
  • Draw — an unfavourable barrier for the track and distance.
  • Connections out of form — poor jockey/trainer strike rate at the track, or a stable going quietly.
  • Trouble / temperament — stewards notes flagging it hung, raced greenly or began awkwardly, without a genuine hard-luck excuse.
An Avoid isn't a prediction it will run last — just that it's poor value to back. If the live market later drifts it further, the ⚠ drifted flag reinforces the read.
VALUE
Value tag Shown on the fair-odds row when the live market price sits modestly above the model's fair odds (×1.15 to ×1.8) — a genuine overlay rather than a stale/drifting price.
⚡ OVERLAY ×1.7
Overlay Same tote-over-fixed signal as on the alerts page, shown against the runner near the off.
⚠ DRIFT TRAP
Drift trap Dummy-drift warning against the runner (see the alerts entry above).
⚠ drifted ×2.1 · pick may be stale
Drifted The live fixed price has blown out ≥1.6× from its opening price — the market has turned against this runner, so its prediction and rank may be stale.
🎯 PLACE VALUE · LEADER
Place value The model rates a strong place chance (≥45%) that the tote place pool is underbetting (place dividend implies ≥25% less than the model), and the early-speed rating confirms the place floor (not a backmarker). A strong each-way / exotic anchor — backing it can blow out your exotic dividends. Shows near the off, once the tote pool is reliable.
⚡ speed: LEADER
Early speed The early-speed rating band (LEADER / MIDFIELD / BACKMARKER), derived from sectional data — how prominent the runner is likely to be early. Leaders and on-pace types have a higher place floor.
was top pick
Was top pick This horse was the top pick when the prediction was made, but the live re-blend has since demoted it (usually because it drifted).
live
Live This runner's rank, win% and fair odds were recomputed on current market odds (the model and VectorOdds scores are unchanged — only the market moved).
SCR
Scratched The runner has been withdrawn and takes no part.

Race page — banners

💰⚡
Betting opportunities banner Appears above the runners to surface the strongest value overlays (model pick above fair) and tote overlays for the race in one place.
⟳
Top pick updated banner Shown when the live re-blend has moved the top pick — e.g. Horse A → Horse B — with the price moves that drove it. The original pick is kept struck-through so the change is clear.

Prediction & odds fields

Fair $
Fair odds The model's vig-free price = 1 ÷ blended win probability. What the horse "should" pay if the blend is right. Compare to the market price to judge value.
Win %
Win probability The blended chance this horse wins (model + market + VectorOdds).
Place %
Place probability Chance of finishing in the paid places (derived from the win probabilities across the field).
Model
Model score The pure multi-factor rating (form, class, the people, race shape), before any market blending.
VO
VO rank / score The VectorOdds composite rating — a strong, market-independent signal that doesn't drift with tote money.
Market $ · tote · pl
Live market odds Fixed win price, tote win (shown only within ~30 min of the off, once the pool is reliable) and fixed place. This is the market feed used everywhere in the app.
🌏 NZL
International A non-Australian meeting (the code shows the country/region).
Stewards
Stewards comments Trouble-in-running notes from a horse's recent starts (e.g. "held up", "checked") — excuses that suggest it ran better than its finishing position.

Thresholds are tuning knobs and may change as more results accumulate. Small samples are noisy — treat every flag as a prompt to look closer, not a guarantee.